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Prediction vindicated as U. Catolica edge out Universidad de Chile 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica beat Universidad de Chile 1-0 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.36 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.05 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Universidad de Chile landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.03 / defence 0.87 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.05 / defence 0.85, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 44% | Draw 27% | Universidad de Chile 29%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 47%, Universidad de Chile 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

U. Catolica's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.72 PPG, Universidad de Chile 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights