U. Catolica 3-0 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates U. Catolica at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this U. Catolica vs Union La Calera encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union La Calera make the trip to Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo to face U. Catolica in Primera División, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Friday 13 May 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
U. Catolica (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
U. Catolica's home record at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
Union La Calera's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Union La Calera have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward U. Catolica. A 1.70 PPG lead over Union La Calera (2.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — U. Catolica lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with U. Catolica winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
U. Catolica — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Union La Calera — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 50% versus Union La Calera 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 69% | Union La Calera 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.38 xG and Union La Calera 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 0.960 / defence 0.954 | Union La Calera attack 0.903 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 0.998. Data: 44 U. Catolica games / 44 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 49% | Draw 28% | Union La Calera 23%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Union La Calera 4.35. U. Catolica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on U. Catolica if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: U. Catolica 50% | Union La Calera 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo • Kick-off: Friday 13 May 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 49% | Draw 28% | Union La Calera 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG U. Catolica 1.38 / Union La Calera 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 0.960 / def 0.954 | Union La Calera attack 0.903 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.315 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Union La Calera xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Union La Calera kick off?
U. Catolica vs Union La Calera kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 13 May 2022 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Union La Calera?
U. Catolica 3 - 0 Union La Calera.
Where is U. Catolica vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Union La Calera part of?
U. Catolica vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 49% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both U. Catolica and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Union La Calera?
Record (1 meetings): U. Catolica 1W | Draws 0 | Union La Calera 0W.
What form are U. Catolica and Union La Calera in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Union La Calera (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from U. Catolica's attack rating (0.96) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union La Calera's attack (0.90x) against U. Catolica's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.57
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.24
0.86
Union La Calera xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
6%
17.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for U. Catolica and 0.86 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
U. Catolica come into this having played 32 games, going 22W 2D 8L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 1.59 PPG from 32 outings (15W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
U. Catolica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
U. Catolica's home form reads 14W 2D 0L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — U. Catolica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 1.75 points per game from 16 outings (8W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
U. Catolica are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.28 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 22W 2D 8L in their last 32 games (2.12 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 15W 6D 11L in their last 32 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Union La Calera away?
U. Catolica's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 2.75 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.75 PPG.
Have U. Catolica or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union La Calera won 4-0 on 23 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, U. Catolica have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
U. Catolica
3
Draws
2
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 5, Union La Calera have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when U. Catolica 1-2 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Union La Calera?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 50%, Union La Calera 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for U. Catolica and 62% for Union La Calera. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Union La Calera?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of U. Catolica's games and 62% of Union La Calera's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is U. Catolica vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of U. Catolica's matches and 62% of Union La Calera's.
Do U. Catolica and Union La Calera tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant U. Catolica run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Union La Calera 3-0 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.38 xG and Union La Calera 0.86 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. U. Catolica beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union La Calera landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against Union La Calera attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 49% | Draw 28% | Union La Calera 23%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 69%, Union La Calera 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union La Calera's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.59. Form held, and they took the win. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.