U. Catolica 3-0 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this U. Catolica vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union La Calera make the trip to Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo to face U. Catolica in Primera División, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.17 xG and Union La Calera 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.144 / defence 1.170 | Union La Calera attack 0.726 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 0.944 / away 1.069. Data: 5 U. Catolica games / 6 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 40% | Draw 34% | Union La Calera 26%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Union La Calera 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on U. Catolica if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 40% | Draw 34% | Union La Calera 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG U. Catolica 1.17 / Union La Calera 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.144 / def 1.170 | Union La Calera attack 0.726 / def 1.085 | league avg home 0.944 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Union La Calera xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Union La Calera kick off?
U. Catolica vs Union La Calera kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 8 May 2021 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Union La Calera?
U. Catolica 3 - 0 Union La Calera.
Where is U. Catolica vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Union La Calera part of?
U. Catolica vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 40% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both U. Catolica and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Union La Calera?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are U. Catolica and Union La Calera in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from U. Catolica's attack rating (1.14) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union La Calera's attack (0.73x) against U. Catolica's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
40%
2.53
34%
2.90
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.08
0.91
Union La Calera xG
2.53
40%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
8%
12.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for U. Catolica and 0.91 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Pre-Season
Union La Calera
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union La Calera won 4-0 on 23 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, U. Catolica have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
U. Catolica
3
Draws
2
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 5, Union La Calera have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when U. Catolica 1-2 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Union La Calera?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant U. Catolica run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Union La Calera 3-0 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.17 xG and Union La Calera 0.91 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. U. Catolica beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union La Calera landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.14 / defence 1.17 against Union La Calera attack 0.73 / defence 1.08, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 40% | Draw 34% | Union La Calera 26%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.