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Prediction vindicated as U. Catolica edge out Union La Calera 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica beat Union La Calera 2-1 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.75 xG and Union La Calera 0.87 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 0.98 / defence 0.87 against Union La Calera attack 0.87 / defence 1.25, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 58% | Draw 23% | Union La Calera 18%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 44%, Union La Calera 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

U. Catolica's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Union La Calera's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights