U. Catolica 2-1 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates U. Catolica at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this U. Catolica vs Union Espanola encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
U. Catolica host Union Espanola at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo in Primera División, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 23:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, U. Catolica stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
U. Catolica's home record at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
Across all Primera División games this season, Union Espanola have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union Espanola away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, U. Catolica have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for U. Catolica, 1 for Union Espanola and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with U. Catolica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
U. Catolica in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Union Espanola in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 50% versus Union Espanola 66%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (U. Catolica 69% | Union Espanola 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.92 xG and Union Espanola 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.239 / defence 0.874 | Union Espanola attack 0.996 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.176. Data: 33 U. Catolica games / 33 Union Espanola games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 58% | Draw 23% | Union Espanola 19%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Union Espanola 5.26. The model has a clear lean to U. Catolica (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is U. Catolica at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: U. Catolica 50% | Union Espanola 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 58% | Draw 23% | Union Espanola 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG U. Catolica 1.92 / Union Espanola 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.239 / def 0.874 | Union Espanola attack 0.996 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Union Espanola xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Union Espanola kick off?
U. Catolica vs Union Espanola kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Union Espanola?
U. Catolica 2 - 1 Union Espanola.
Where is U. Catolica vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Union Espanola part of?
U. Catolica vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 58% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both U. Catolica and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Union Espanola?
Record (2 meetings): U. Catolica 1W | Draws 0 | Union Espanola 1W.
What form are U. Catolica and Union Espanola in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Union Espanola (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
U. Catolica's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Union Espanola's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.33
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.94
1.02
Union Espanola xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
15%
6.82
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
3%
35.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.02 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Union Espanola?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
U. Catolica come into this having played 32 games, going 22W 2D 8L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.50 PPG from 32 outings (15W 3D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
U. Catolica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
U. Catolica's home form reads 14W 2D 0L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — U. Catolica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 1.19 points per game from 16 outings (6W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
U. Catolica are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.50 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola in 66%.
Defensively: U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 22W 2D 8L in their last 32 games (2.12 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 15W 3D 14L in their last 32 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Union Espanola away?
U. Catolica's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 2.75 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.19 PPG.
Have U. Catolica or Union Espanola been keeping clean sheets recently?
U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Union Espanola in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
U. Catolica go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
U. Catolica's record when hosting Union Espanola specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
U. Catolica
2
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 6, Union Espanola have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when U. Catolica 2-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Union Espanola?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 50%, Union Espanola 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for U. Catolica and 56% for Union Espanola. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Union Espanola in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 50% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is U. Catolica vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of U. Catolica's matches and 56% of Union Espanola's.
Do U. Catolica and Union Espanola tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as U. Catolica edge out Union Espanola 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Union Espanola 2-1 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.92 xG and Union Espanola 1.02 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.24 / defence 0.87 against Union Espanola attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 58% | Draw 23% | Union Espanola 19%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 69%, Union Espanola 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Espanola's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.