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Prediction vindicated as U. Catolica edge out Nublense 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica beat Nublense 1-0 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.42 xG and Nublense 1.10 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nublense landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.09 / defence 0.96 against Nublense attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 44% | Draw 26% | Nublense 29%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 46%, Nublense 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

U. Catolica's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Nublense's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.63 PPG, Nublense 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights