U. Catolica 2-0 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 17 as U. Catolica welcome Everton de Vina to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Monday 23 August 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, U. Catolica have gone 6W 1D 0L this season (7 games, 2.71 PPG). They are averaging 2.29 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — U. Catolica are significantly better at Estadio Sausalito than their overall form suggests.
Everton de Vina — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 3D 1L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (U. Catolica) versus 1.70 (Everton de Vina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
U. Catolica trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 53% versus Everton de Vina 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 67% | Everton de Vina 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.32 xG and Everton de Vina 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.373 / defence 1.051 | Everton de Vina attack 0.767 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.203. U. Catolica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — their λ of 1.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 15 U. Catolica games / 15 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 43% | Draw 31% | Everton de Vina 26%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Everton de Vina 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: U. Catolica 57% | Everton de Vina 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Monday 23 Aug 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 43% | Draw 31% | Everton de Vina 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG U. Catolica 1.32 / Everton de Vina 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.373 / def 1.051 | Everton de Vina attack 0.767 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Everton de Vina xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina kick off?
U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 23 August 2021 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
U. Catolica 2 - 0 Everton de Vina.
Where is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina part of?
U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 43% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both U. Catolica and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates U. Catolica's attack at 1.37x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
43%
2.34
31%
3.18
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.29
0.97
Everton de Vina xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for U. Catolica and 0.97 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
U. Catolica's recent record stands at 8W 1D 6L from 15 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 4L across 15 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: U. Catolica on 1.67 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, U. Catolica have managed 6W 1D 0L from 7 games — 2.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — U. Catolica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 3W 3D 1L across 7 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
U. Catolica are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.00 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 8W 1D 6L in their last 15 games (1.67 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 6W 5D 4L in their last 15 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Everton de Vina away?
U. Catolica's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 2.71 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.71 PPG.
Have U. Catolica or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2025, when U. Catolica won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
U. Catolica's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
U. Catolica
3
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 4, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when U. Catolica 2-2 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Everton de Vina tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 57%, Everton de Vina 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 86% (U. Catolica) and 14% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 43%; Everton de Vina in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 43% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 86% of U. Catolica's recent games and 14% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do U. Catolica and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
U. Catolica cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Everton de Vina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Everton de Vina 2-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.32 xG and Everton de Vina 0.97 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Everton de Vina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.37 / defence 1.05 against Everton de Vina attack 0.77 / defence 0.90, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 43% | Draw 31% | Everton de Vina 26%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 67%, Everton de Vina 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.67 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. U. Catolica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.