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Dominant U. Catolica run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Everton de Vina.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica beat Everton de Vina 6-0 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.94 xG and Everton de Vina 0.87 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. U. Catolica beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton de Vina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.07 / defence 0.99 against Everton de Vina attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 62% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 16%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 60%, Everton de Vina 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.47 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights