🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as U. Catolica edge out Deportes Limache 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica beat Deportes Limache 2-1 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 2.17 xG and Deportes Limache 0.85 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.07 / defence 0.95 against Deportes Limache attack 0.90 / defence 1.35, drawn from 36/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 67% | Draw 20% | Deportes Limache 13%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights