U. Catolica 0-2 D. La Serena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates U. Catolica at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this U. Catolica vs D. La Serena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
U. Catolica host D. La Serena at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo in Primera División, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
U. Catolica's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
D. La Serena — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
D. La Serena's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
U. Catolica carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for U. Catolica, 0 for D. La Serena and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with U. Catolica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
U. Catolica trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
D. La Serena trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 50% versus D. La Serena 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 69% | D. La Serena 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.92 xG and D. La Serena 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.084 / defence 0.838 | D. La Serena attack 1.199 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.117. D. La Serena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing U. Catolica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 U. Catolica games / 40 D. La Serena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 56% | Draw 22% | D. La Serena 22%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | D. La Serena 4.55. The model has a clear lean to U. Catolica (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates U. Catolica as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: U. Catolica 50% | D. La Serena 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs D. La Serena | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 56% | Draw 22% | D. La Serena 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG U. Catolica 1.92 / D. La Serena 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.084 / def 0.838 | D. La Serena attack 1.199 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.12
D. La Serena xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs D. La Serena kick off?
U. Catolica vs D. La Serena kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs D. La Serena?
U. Catolica 0 - 2 D. La Serena.
Where is U. Catolica vs D. La Serena being played?
The match is being played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What competition is U. Catolica vs D. La Serena part of?
U. Catolica vs D. La Serena is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs D. La Serena?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 56% chance of winning, D. La Serena a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs D. La Serena?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both U. Catolica and D. La Serena will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs D. La Serena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and D. La Serena?
Record (2 meetings): U. Catolica 2W | Draws 0 | D. La Serena 0W.
What form are U. Catolica and D. La Serena in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. D. La Serena (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates U. Catolica's attack at 1.08x the league average against D. La Serena's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, D. La Serena's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.53
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
3.05
1.12
D. La Serena xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
15%
6.84
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
3%
31.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs D. La Serena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and D. La Serena expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.12 for D. La Serena, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs D. La Serena?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, U. Catolica have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 22W 2D 8L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
D. La Serena's form line: 9W 12D 11L from 32 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D.
Put side by side, U. Catolica are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against D. La Serena.
Venue Form
On home soil, U. Catolica have posted 2.75 PPG from 16 outings (14W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — U. Catolica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, D. La Serena have gone 3W 7D 6L from 16 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
U. Catolica are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; D. La Serena are on 1.25 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Current Season
D. La Serena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and D. La Serena in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 22W 2D 8L in their last 32 games (2.12 PPG), while D. La Serena have gone 9W 12D 11L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or D. La Serena away?
U. Catolica's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 2.75 PPG; D. La Serena away: 1.00 PPG.
Have U. Catolica or D. La Serena been keeping clean sheets recently?
U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, D. La Serena in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2022, when U. Catolica won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
U. Catolica's record when hosting D. La Serena specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
U. Catolica
2
Draws
2
D. La Serena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and D. La Serena?
From 8 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 4, D. La Serena have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and D. La Serena last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when U. Catolica 3-3 D. La Serena.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and D. La Serena?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
D. La Serena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 50%, D. La Serena 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (U. Catolica) and 44% (D. La Serena). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; D. La Serena in 31%; D. La Serena in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / D. La Serena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play D. La Serena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 50% of D. La Serena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is U. Catolica vs D. La Serena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of U. Catolica's matches and 44% of D. La Serena's.
Do U. Catolica and D. La Serena tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, D. La Serena in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
D. La Serena cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over U. Catolica.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
D. La Serena beat U. Catolica 0-2 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.92 xG and D. La Serena 1.12 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. U. Catolica fell 1.9 short of their projected output. D. La Serena outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.08 / defence 0.84 against D. La Serena attack 1.20 / defence 1.30, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 56% | Draw 22% | D. La Serena 22%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a D. La Serena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 69%, D. La Serena 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
D. La Serena's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with D. La Serena winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. D. La Serena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.