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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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U. Catolica cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Coquimbo Unido.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica beat Coquimbo Unido 3-1 at Claro Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.07 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.82 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. U. Catolica beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.03 / defence 0.89 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.96 / defence 0.73, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 41% | Draw 31% | Coquimbo Unido 27%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 45%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.73 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights