🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Colo Colo defy the odds to beat U. Catolica 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat U. Catolica 1-2 at Claro Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.69 xG and Colo Colo 1.21 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.31 / defence 1.07 against Colo Colo attack 1.00 / defence 0.79, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 49% | Draw 24% | Colo Colo 27%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Colo Colo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 45%, Colo Colo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.73 PPG, Colo Colo 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colo Colo win broke the near-deadlock. U. Catolica (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Colo Colo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights