U. Catolica 2-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this U. Catolica vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 9 as U. Catolica welcome Cobresal to Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo. Kick-off is set for Monday 31 May 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.46 xG and Cobresal 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.294 / defence 1.075 | Cobresal attack 0.679 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.058. U. Catolica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — their λ of 1.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 7 U. Catolica games / 8 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 53% | Draw 28% | Cobresal 19%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Cobresal 5.26. U. Catolica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is U. Catolica at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo • Kick-off: Monday 31 May 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 53% | Draw 28% | Cobresal 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG U. Catolica 1.46 / Cobresal 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.294 / def 1.075 | Cobresal attack 0.679 / def 1.162 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Cobresal xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Cobresal kick off?
U. Catolica vs Cobresal kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 31 May 2021 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Cobresal?
U. Catolica 2 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is U. Catolica vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Cobresal part of?
U. Catolica vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 53% chance of winning, Cobresal a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both U. Catolica and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Cobresal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are U. Catolica and Cobresal in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates U. Catolica's attack at 1.29x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.52
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.23
0.77
Cobresal xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
4%
22.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for U. Catolica and 0.77 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Pre-Season
Cobresal
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between U. Catolica and Cobresal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
U. Catolica's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
U. Catolica
3
Draws
3
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 4, Cobresal have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cobresal 3-2 U. Catolica.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Cobresal?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as U. Catolica edge out Cobresal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Cobresal 2-1 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.46 xG and Cobresal 0.77 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.29 / defence 1.07 against Cobresal attack 0.68 / defence 1.16, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 53% | Draw 28% | Cobresal 19%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.