U. Catolica 4-0 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates U. Catolica at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this U. Catolica vs Antofagasta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
U. Catolica host Antofagasta at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo in Primera División, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 4 November 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
U. Catolica — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, U. Catolica have posted 8W 2D 0L at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Antofagasta have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antofagasta's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
On current form, U. Catolica have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, U. Catolica have won 0, Antofagasta 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2021, ended 2–3 with Antofagasta winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
U. Catolica in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Antofagasta in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — U. Catolica 59% and Antofagasta 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 74% | Antofagasta 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.83 xG and Antofagasta 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.575 / defence 1.044 | Antofagasta attack 0.702 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.322. U. Catolica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.575 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 27 U. Catolica games / 27 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 57% | Draw 23% | Antofagasta 20%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Antofagasta 5.00. The model has a clear lean to U. Catolica (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is U. Catolica at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: U. Catolica 60% | Antofagasta 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Nov 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 57% | Draw 23% | Antofagasta 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG U. Catolica 1.83 / Antofagasta 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.575 / def 1.044 | Antofagasta attack 0.702 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Antofagasta xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Antofagasta kick off?
U. Catolica vs Antofagasta kicked off at 21:00 on Thursday 4 November 2021 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Antofagasta?
U. Catolica 4 - 0 Antofagasta.
Where is U. Catolica vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Antofagasta part of?
U. Catolica vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 57% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both U. Catolica and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Antofagasta?
Record (1 meetings): U. Catolica 0W | Draws 0 | Antofagasta 1W.
What form are U. Catolica and Antofagasta in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Antofagasta (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
U. Catolica's attacking strength (1.57x league average) is weighed against Antofagasta's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Antofagasta's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
57%
1.74
23%
4.34
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.80
0.97
Antofagasta xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
3%
31.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for U. Catolica and 0.97 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Antofagasta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, U. Catolica have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 17W 2D 8L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antofagasta's form line: 11W 8D 8L from 27 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, U. Catolica are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antofagasta.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, U. Catolica have posted 2.69 PPG from 13 outings (11W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.96 PPG overall — U. Catolica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Antofagasta have gone 3W 7D 3L from 13 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
U. Catolica are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 1.22 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antofagasta in 67%.
Last 27 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Blended
Antofagasta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 17W 2D 8L in their last 27 games (1.96 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 11W 8D 8L in their last 27 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Antofagasta away?
U. Catolica's home record (2.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 2.69 PPG; Antofagasta away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between U. Catolica and Antofagasta runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
U. Catolica go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2021, when U. Catolica won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
U. Catolica's record when hosting Antofagasta specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
U. Catolica
0
Draws
1
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 3, Antofagasta have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2022, when Antofagasta 0-2 U. Catolica.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Antofagasta?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 62%, Antofagasta 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 85% (U. Catolica) and 23% (Antofagasta).
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Antofagasta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of U. Catolica's games and 62% of Antofagasta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is U. Catolica vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 85% of U. Catolica's recent games and 23% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do U. Catolica and Antofagasta tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant U. Catolica run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Antofagasta.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Antofagasta 4-0 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.83 xG and Antofagasta 0.97 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. U. Catolica beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antofagasta landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.57 / defence 1.04 against Antofagasta attack 0.70 / defence 1.10, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 57% | Draw 23% | Antofagasta 20%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 74%, Antofagasta 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Antofagasta's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was vindicated by the result. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Antofagasta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.