Santiago Wanderers 2-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cobresal at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santiago Wanderers vs Cobresal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander plays host to Santiago Wanderers versus Cobresal in Primera División, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 12 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Santiago Wanderers have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Santiago Wanderers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santiago Wanderers's home record at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander: 0W 2D 7L from 9 Primera División appearances (0.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cobresal (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Cobresal have posted 2W 3D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Cobresal are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Santiago Wanderers 0W, Cobresal 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2021, ended 1–2 with Cobresal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Santiago Wanderers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Cobresal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santiago Wanderers 44% versus Cobresal 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santiago Wanderers 56% | Cobresal 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santiago Wanderers 0.85 xG and Cobresal 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santiago Wanderers attack 0.719 / defence 1.703 | Cobresal attack 0.799 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.152. Santiago Wanderers's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Santiago Wanderers games / 18 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santiago Wanderers 19% | Draw 28% | Cobresal 53%. Fair-value odds: Santiago Wanderers 5.26 | Draw 3.57 | Cobresal 1.89. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cobresal as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Santiago Wanderers 56% | Cobresal 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santiago Wanderers vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santiago Wanderers 19% | Draw 28% | Cobresal 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Santiago Wanderers 0.85 / Cobresal 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Santiago Wanderers attack 0.719 / def 1.703 | Cobresal attack 0.799 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Santiago Wanderers xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Cobresal xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santiago Wanderers vs Cobresal kick off?
Santiago Wanderers vs Cobresal kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander.
What was the final score in Santiago Wanderers vs Cobresal?
Santiago Wanderers 2 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Santiago Wanderers vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander.
What competition is Santiago Wanderers vs Cobresal part of?
Santiago Wanderers vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Santiago Wanderers vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Santiago Wanderers a 19% chance of winning, Cobresal a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santiago Wanderers vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Santiago Wanderers and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Santiago Wanderers vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santiago Wanderers and Cobresal?
Record (1 meetings): Santiago Wanderers 0W | Draws 0 | Cobresal 1W.
What form are Santiago Wanderers and Cobresal in?
Santiago Wanderers (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Cobresal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Santiago Wanderers's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.80x) against Santiago Wanderers's defence (1.70x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
19%
5.28
28%
3.54
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Santiago Wanderers xG
Total xG
2.42
1.57
Cobresal xG
5.28
19%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
4%
25.32
23%
4.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santiago Wanderers vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Santiago Wanderers and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Santiago Wanderers and 1.57 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Santiago Wanderers vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Santiago Wanderers's recent record stands at 1W 2D 15L from 18 games, a 0.28 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Santiago Wanderers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobresal, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 6L across 18 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cobresal by 1.28 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santiago Wanderers heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Santiago Wanderers have managed 0W 2D 7L from 9 games — 0.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cobresal's away record stands at 2W 3D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Santiago Wanderers are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Cobresal in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santiago Wanderers
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santiago Wanderers and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Santiago Wanderers have gone 1W 2D 15L in their last 18 games (0.28 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 8W 4D 6L in their last 18 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santiago Wanderers at home or Cobresal away?
Cobresal's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santiago Wanderers at home: 0.22 PPG; Cobresal away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Santiago Wanderers or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santiago Wanderers have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Cobresal in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Santiago Wanderers
0
Draws
1
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santiago Wanderers and Cobresal?
From 2 meetings on record, Santiago Wanderers have won 1, Cobresal have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Santiago Wanderers and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2021, when Santiago Wanderers 2-1 Cobresal.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Santiago Wanderers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santiago Wanderers 56%, Cobresal 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Santiago Wanderers and 44% for Cobresal. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cobresal in 44%; Santiago Wanderers have failed to score in 44% of games; Cobresal in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santiago Wanderers home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santiago Wanderers play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Santiago Wanderers's recent matches and 44% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santiago Wanderers vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Santiago Wanderers's matches and 44% of Cobresal's.
Do Santiago Wanderers and Cobresal tend to score early?
Santiago Wanderers have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santiago Wanderers defy the odds to beat Cobresal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santiago Wanderers beat Cobresal 2-1 at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander, Regular Season - 21, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santiago Wanderers 0.85 xG and Cobresal 1.57 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Santiago Wanderers beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santiago Wanderers attack 0.72 / defence 1.70 against Cobresal attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santiago Wanderers 19% | Draw 28% | Cobresal 53%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Santiago Wanderers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santiago Wanderers 56%, Cobresal 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santiago Wanderers's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Cobresal's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cobresal arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.28. Form was overturned, with Santiago Wanderers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Santiago Wanderers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.