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Prediction vindicated as Palestino edge out Union La Calera 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palestino beat Union La Calera 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.25 xG and Union La Calera 0.78 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Union La Calera attack 0.76 / defence 0.86, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palestino 45% | Draw 34% | Union La Calera 21%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 48%, Union La Calera 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palestino 1.58 PPG, Union La Calera 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights