🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Palestino edge out Union Espanola 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palestino beat Union Espanola 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.73 xG and Union Espanola 0.99 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Espanola landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against Union Espanola attack 0.90 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palestino 55% | Draw 24% | Union Espanola 22%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 47%, Union Espanola 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palestino's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Union Espanola's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Palestino arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Palestino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights