Palestino 1-4 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palestino vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Everton de Vina travel to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to take on Palestino. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palestino stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palestino at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palestino 1.70 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Palestino register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Everton de Vina in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Palestino, 1 for Everton de Vina and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Palestino in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 61% versus Everton de Vina 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 54% | Everton de Vina 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.37 xG and Everton de Vina 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.204 / defence 1.156 | Everton de Vina attack 1.057 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.098. Data: 57 Palestino games / 57 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 38% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 36%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Everton de Vina 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palestino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Palestino 60% | Everton de Vina 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 38% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Palestino 1.37 / Everton de Vina 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.204 / def 1.156 | Everton de Vina attack 1.057 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Palestino (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Everton de Vina xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Palestino vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Palestino 1 - 4 Everton de Vina.
Where is Palestino vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Everton de Vina part of?
Palestino vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 38% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Palestino and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Everton de Vina?
Record (2 meetings): Palestino 0W | Draws 1 | Everton de Vina 1W.
What form are Palestino and Everton de Vina in?
Palestino (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palestino's attack at 1.20x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
38%
2.65
26%
3.88
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.71
1.34
Everton de Vina xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Palestino and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Palestino and 1.34 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Palestino have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 20W 18D 19L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina's form line: 17W 22D 18L from 57 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palestino on 1.37 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palestino have posted 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (13W 7D 8L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 7W 11D 10L from 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palestino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palestino are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.02 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palestino have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Everton de Vina in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 20W 18D 19L in their last 57 games (1.37 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 17W 22D 18L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Everton de Vina away?
Palestino's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.64 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Palestino or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Palestino have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Everton de Vina won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palestino's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palestino
3
Draws
4
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 3, Everton de Vina have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 61%, Everton de Vina 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Palestino) and 29% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Palestino's games and 50% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palestino vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Palestino's recent games and 29% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Everton de Vina run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Palestino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Palestino 1-4 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.37 xG and Everton de Vina 1.34 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.20 / defence 1.16 against Everton de Vina attack 1.06 / defence 0.81, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 38% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 36%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 54%, Everton de Vina 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palestino 1.37 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.