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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Palestino edge out Everton de Vina 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palestino beat Everton de Vina 2-1 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.39 xG and Everton de Vina 0.87 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 0.86 / defence 0.88 against Everton de Vina attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palestino 49% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 24%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 45%, Everton de Vina 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palestino's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Everton de Vina's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palestino 1.55 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights