🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Palestino edge out Deportes Limache 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palestino beat Deportes Limache 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 2.02 xG and Deportes Limache 1.52 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palestino fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Deportes Limache landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.20 / defence 1.04 against Deportes Limache attack 1.31 / defence 1.04, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palestino 49% | Draw 21% | Deportes Limache 29%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 57%, Deportes Limache 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palestino's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palestino arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Palestino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights