Palestino 1-2 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Colo Colo at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palestino vs Colo Colo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Colo Colo travel to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to take on Palestino. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palestino stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palestino have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Palestino are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna than their overall form suggests.
Colo Colo — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colo Colo's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Colo Colo are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Palestino in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Colo Colo in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 57% versus Colo Colo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 52% | Colo Colo 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.31 xG and Colo Colo 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.151 / defence 1.090 | Colo Colo attack 1.306 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.175. Colo Colo have an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Palestino games / 22 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 29% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 44%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Colo Colo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colo Colo are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colo Colo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Palestino 40% | Colo Colo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 29% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Palestino 1.31 / Colo Colo 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.151 / def 1.090 | Colo Colo attack 1.306 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Colo Colo xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Colo Colo kick off?
Palestino vs Colo Colo kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Colo Colo?
Palestino 1 - 2 Colo Colo.
Where is Palestino vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Colo Colo part of?
Palestino vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 29% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Palestino and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Colo Colo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palestino and Colo Colo in?
Palestino (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Colo Colo (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Palestino's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Colo Colo's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Colo Colo's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
29%
3.47
27%
3.74
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.99
1.67
Colo Colo xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
5%
18.49
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Palestino and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Palestino and 1.67 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palestino's recent record stands at 7W 4D 10L from 21 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colo Colo, meanwhile, have gone 13W 3D 5L across 21 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Colo Colo by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Palestino heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Palestino have managed 5W 2D 3L from 10 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Palestino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Colo Colo's away record stands at 7W 2D 1L across 10 trips, a 2.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palestino are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.67 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Colo Colo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 13W 3D 5L in their last 21 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.70 PPG; Colo Colo away: 2.30 PPG.
Have Palestino or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palestino and Colo Colo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Mar 2022, when Colo Colo won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palestino's record when hosting Colo Colo specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Palestino
2
Draws
6
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 2, Colo Colo have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Colo Colo 0-1 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palestino tend to start slowly — only 30% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 40%, Colo Colo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Palestino) and 50% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Colo Colo in 50%; Palestino have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Colo Colo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Palestino's recent matches and 50% of Colo Colo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palestino vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Palestino's recent games and 50% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 30% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out Palestino 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Palestino 1-2 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.31 xG and Colo Colo 1.67 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.15 / defence 1.09 against Colo Colo attack 1.31 / defence 1.04, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 29% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 44%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 52%, Colo Colo 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Colo Colo's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Palestino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.