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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Palestino cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Cobresal.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palestino beat Cobresal 4-2 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.95 xG and Cobresal 0.97 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Palestino beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cobresal outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.14 / defence 1.00 against Cobresal attack 0.95 / defence 1.23, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palestino 60% | Draw 22% | Cobresal 18%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 52%, Cobresal 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palestino 1.58 PPG, Cobresal 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights