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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Palestino edge out Cobresal 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palestino beat Cobresal 2-1 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.80 xG and Cobresal 1.01 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against Cobresal attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palestino 56% | Draw 23% | Cobresal 21%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 48%, Cobresal 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palestino 1.58 PPG, Cobresal 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights