Palestino 2-4 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Palestino at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palestino vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 1 as Palestino welcome Antofagasta to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 March 2021 at 14:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.03 xG and Antofagasta 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Antofagasta attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 0.508. Data: 0 Palestino games / 0 Antofagasta games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Palestino 45% | Draw 41% | Antofagasta 14%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 2.22 | Draw 2.44 | Antofagasta 7.14. Palestino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (41%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Antofagasta's lower xG of 0.50 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palestino at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 41% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palestino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 20% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Mar 2021, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 45% | Draw 41% | Antofagasta 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 28% | xG Palestino 1.03 / Antofagasta 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Antofagasta attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.051 / away 0.508 • Poisson stance: Palestino (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
0.50
Antofagasta xG
28%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Antofagasta kick off?
Palestino vs Antofagasta kicked off at 14:45 on Sunday 28 March 2021 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Antofagasta?
Palestino 2 - 4 Antofagasta.
Where is Palestino vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Antofagasta part of?
Palestino vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 45% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 14% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Palestino and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Antofagasta?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palestino and Antofagasta in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Palestino's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Antofagasta's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Antofagasta's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 0.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (20.9%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
45%
2.24
41%
2.43
14%
7.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
21.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Palestino xG
Total xG
1.52
0.50
Antofagasta xG
2.24
45%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
7.02
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.51
72%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
5%
19.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.8 | 10.8 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 22.4 | 11.1 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.2%.
How many goals are Palestino and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Palestino and 0.50 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Pre-Season
Antofagasta
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palestino and Antofagasta runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palestino have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2022, when Palestino won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palestino's record when hosting Antofagasta specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Palestino
0
Draws
2
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, Palestino have won 2, Antofagasta have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 15 October 2022, when Antofagasta 0-3 Palestino.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Antofagasta cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Palestino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antofagasta beat Palestino 2-4 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.03 xG and Antofagasta 0.50 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Palestino beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antofagasta outscored their 0.50 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Antofagasta attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 45% | Draw 41% | Antofagasta 14%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Antofagasta win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.