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Prediction vindicated as O'Higgins edge out Union La Calera 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

O'Higgins beat Union La Calera 1-0 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.26 xG and Union La Calera 0.80 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union La Calera landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.92 / defence 0.88 against Union La Calera attack 0.84 / defence 0.93, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 47% | Draw 29% | Union La Calera 24%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 47%, Union La Calera 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

O'Higgins's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Union La Calera's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — O'Higgins 1.23 PPG, Union La Calera 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the O'Higgins win broke the near-deadlock. O'Higgins (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights