🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as O'Higgins edge out Union Espanola 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

O'Higgins beat Union Espanola 1-0 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.83 xG and Union Espanola 0.94 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. O'Higgins fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Union Espanola landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.99 / defence 0.92 against Union Espanola attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 58% | Draw 23% | Union Espanola 19%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 50%, Union Espanola 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

O'Higgins's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — O'Higgins 1.10 PPG, Union Espanola 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the O'Higgins win broke the near-deadlock. O'Higgins (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights