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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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O'Higgins cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Nublense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

O'Higgins beat Nublense 4-2 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.38 xG and Nublense 0.80 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. O'Higgins beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nublense outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.93 / defence 0.86 against Nublense attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 51% | Draw 28% | Nublense 22%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 48%, Nublense 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

O'Higgins's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Nublense's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — O'Higgins 1.39 PPG, Nublense 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the O'Higgins win broke the near-deadlock. O'Higgins (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Nublense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights