O'Higgins 1-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates O'Higgins at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
O'Higgins host Everton de Vina at Estadio El Teniente in Primera División, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 16 May 2023 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Guide
O'Higgins — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estadio El Teniente, O'Higgins have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Teniente.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — O'Higgins at 1.70 PPG versus Everton de Vina's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for O'Higgins, 0 for Everton de Vina and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with O'Higgins winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
O'Higgins in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — O'Higgins 44% versus Everton de Vina 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (O'Higgins 40% | Everton de Vina 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects O'Higgins 1.64 xG and Everton de Vina 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: O'Higgins attack 0.958 / defence 1.007 | Everton de Vina attack 1.161 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.260. Everton de Vina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing O'Higgins's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 O'Higgins games / 43 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: O'Higgins 41% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 34%. Fair-value odds: O'Higgins 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Everton de Vina 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 60% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates O'Higgins as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on O'Higgins offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: O'Higgins 40% | Everton de Vina 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 May 2023, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: O'Higgins 41% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG O'Higgins 1.64 / Everton de Vina 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: O'Higgins attack 0.958 / def 1.007 | Everton de Vina attack 1.161 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: O'Higgins (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
O'Higgins xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Everton de Vina xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina kick off?
O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 01:30 on Tuesday 16 May 2023 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina?
O'Higgins 1 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina part of?
O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives O'Higgins a 41% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making O'Higgins the favourite.
Will both teams score in O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both O'Higgins and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Everton de Vina?
Record (3 meetings): O'Higgins 2W | Draws 1 | Everton de Vina 0W.
What form are O'Higgins and Everton de Vina in?
O'Higgins (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from O'Higgins's attack rating (0.96) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus O'Higgins's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
O'Higgins Win
41%
2.42
24%
4.12
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
O'Higgins xG
Total xG
3.11
1.47
Everton de Vina xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
9%
10.54
7%
14.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are O'Higgins and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for O'Higgins and 1.47 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, O'Higgins have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 20W 22D 20L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Everton de Vina's form line: 19W 24D 19L from 62 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: O'Higgins on 1.32 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, O'Higgins have posted 1.65 PPG from 31 outings (13W 12D 6L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 8W 12D 11L from 31 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, O'Higgins come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
O'Higgins are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.11 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: O'Higgins have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
O'Higgins
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are O'Higgins and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
O'Higgins have gone 20W 22D 20L in their last 62 games (1.32 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 19W 24D 19L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — O'Higgins at home or Everton de Vina away?
O'Higgins's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — O'Higgins at home: 1.65 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.16 PPG.
Have O'Higgins or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
O'Higgins have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between O'Higgins and Everton de Vina runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
O'Higgins's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
O'Higgins
3
Draws
1
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, O'Higgins have won 6, Everton de Vina have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did O'Higgins and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when O'Higgins 2-3 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between O'Higgins and Everton de Vina?
O'Higgins have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
O'Higgins are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — O'Higgins 52%, Everton de Vina 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (O'Higgins) and 29% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: O'Higgins keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = O'Higgins home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when O'Higgins play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of O'Higgins's recent matches and 52% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of O'Higgins's recent games and 29% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do O'Higgins and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
O'Higgins have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
O'Higgins and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 14, as O'Higgins and Everton de Vina drew 1-1 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.64 xG and Everton de Vina 1.47 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against Everton de Vina attack 1.16 / defence 1.24, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 41% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 34%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 40%, Everton de Vina 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
O'Higgins's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — O'Higgins 1.32 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.