O'Higgins 1-0 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as O'Higgins take on Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
O'Higgins host Everton de Vina at Estadio El Teniente in Primera División, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 August 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
O'Higgins — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for O'Higgins, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio El Teniente, O'Higgins have gone 2W 4D 2L this season (8 games, 1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Teniente. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — O'Higgins are significantly better at Estadio El Teniente than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Everton de Vina — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
O'Higgins in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — O'Higgins 50% versus Everton de Vina 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (O'Higgins 44% | Everton de Vina 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects O'Higgins 0.89 xG and Everton de Vina 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: O'Higgins attack 0.866 / defence 1.284 | Everton de Vina attack 0.682 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.055 / away 1.202. Data: 16 O'Higgins games / 16 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: O'Higgins 27% | Draw 36% | Everton de Vina 36%. Fair-value odds: O'Higgins 3.70 | Draw 2.78 | Everton de Vina 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: O'Higgins 50% | Everton de Vina 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: O'Higgins 27% | Draw 36% | Everton de Vina 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG O'Higgins 0.89 / Everton de Vina 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: O'Higgins attack 0.866 / def 1.284 | Everton de Vina attack 0.682 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.055 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
O'Higgins xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Everton de Vina xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina kick off?
O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina?
O'Higgins 1 - 0 Everton de Vina.
Where is O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina part of?
O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives O'Higgins a 27% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both O'Higgins and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Everton de Vina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are O'Higgins and Everton de Vina in?
O'Higgins (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from O'Higgins's attack rating (0.87) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus O'Higgins's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.65
36%
2.75
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
O'Higgins xG
Total xG
1.94
1.05
Everton de Vina xG
3.65
27%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 15.1 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are O'Higgins and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for O'Higgins and 1.05 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, O'Higgins have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 4W 7D 5L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for O'Higgins is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina's form line: 6W 5D 5L from 16 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: O'Higgins on 1.19 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, O'Higgins have posted 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (2W 4D 2L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
O'Higgins are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.94 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: O'Higgins have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Everton de Vina in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
O'Higgins
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are O'Higgins and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
O'Higgins have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — O'Higgins at home or Everton de Vina away?
Everton de Vina's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — O'Higgins at home: 1.25 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.50 PPG.
Have O'Higgins or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
O'Higgins have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between O'Higgins and Everton de Vina runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
O'Higgins's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
O'Higgins
3
Draws
1
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, O'Higgins have won 6, Everton de Vina have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did O'Higgins and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when O'Higgins 2-3 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between O'Higgins and Everton de Vina?
O'Higgins have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
O'Higgins see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — O'Higgins 50%, Everton de Vina 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for O'Higgins and 12% for Everton de Vina.
On the defensive side: O'Higgins keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 38%; Everton de Vina in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = O'Higgins home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when O'Higgins play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of O'Higgins's recent matches and 38% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is O'Higgins vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of O'Higgins's recent games and 12% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as O'Higgins defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
O'Higgins beat Everton de Vina 1-0 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 0.89 xG and Everton de Vina 1.05 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton de Vina landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.87 / defence 1.28 against Everton de Vina attack 0.68 / defence 0.97, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 27% | Draw 36% | Everton de Vina 36%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual O'Higgins win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 44%, Everton de Vina 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
O'Higgins's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — O'Higgins 1.19 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the O'Higgins win broke the near-deadlock. O'Higgins (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.