🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Everton de Vina edge out O'Higgins 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton de Vina beat O'Higgins 2-3 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 0.89 xG and Everton de Vina 1.07 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. O'Higgins beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.71 / defence 0.92 against Everton de Vina attack 0.96 / defence 0.79, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 30% | Draw 31% | Everton de Vina 39%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 48%, Everton de Vina 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

O'Higgins's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — O'Higgins 1.45 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. O'Higgins (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights