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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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O'Higgins and Deportes Iquique share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 9, as O'Higgins and Deportes Iquique drew 2-2 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.51 xG and Deportes Iquique 0.78 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Iquique outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Deportes Iquique attack 0.92 / defence 1.12, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 54% | Draw 27% | Deportes Iquique 19%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 57%, Deportes Iquique 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

O'Higgins's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Deportes Iquique arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. O'Higgins (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights