O'Higgins 2-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates O'Higgins at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coquimbo Unido make the trip to Estadio El Teniente to face O'Higgins in Primera División, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 April 2022 at 00:30 UTC.
Current Form
O'Higgins's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
O'Higgins at Estadio El Teniente this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects O'Higgins 1.77 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: O'Higgins attack 1.058 / defence 0.961 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.748 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.171. Data: 39 O'Higgins games / 7 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: O'Higgins 59% | Draw 24% | Coquimbo Unido 17%. Fair-value odds: O'Higgins 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Coquimbo Unido 5.88. The model has a clear lean to O'Higgins (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, O'Higgins are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: O'Higgins 59% | Draw 24% | Coquimbo Unido 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG O'Higgins 1.77 / Coquimbo Unido 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: O'Higgins attack 1.058 / def 0.961 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.748 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: O'Higgins (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
O'Higgins xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Coquimbo Unido xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 00:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
O'Higgins 2 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives O'Higgins a 59% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making O'Higgins the favourite.
Will both teams score in O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido in?
O'Higgins (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. O'Higgins home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates O'Higgins's attack at 1.06x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.75x) against O'Higgins's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 39/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
O'Higgins Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.12
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
O'Higgins xG
Total xG
2.61
0.84
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
3%
34.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for O'Higgins and 0.84 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
O'Higgins
Pre-Season
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, O'Higgins have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
O'Higgins
2
Draws
5
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, O'Higgins have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 0-0 O'Higgins.
Who has won more matches between O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = O'Higgins home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as O'Higgins edge out Coquimbo Unido 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
O'Higgins beat Coquimbo Unido 2-1 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.77 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.84 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.75 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 59% | Draw 24% | Coquimbo Unido 17%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.