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Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out O'Higgins 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat O'Higgins 0-1 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 0.95 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.16 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. O'Higgins fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.18 / defence 0.64, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 30% | Draw 30% | Coquimbo Unido 40%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 50%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

O'Higgins's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.39. That form edge translated into the three points. O'Higgins (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights