🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as O'Higgins edge out Concepción 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

O'Higgins beat Concepción 2-1 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.66 xG and Concepción 0.86 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Concepción attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 56% | Draw 24% | Concepción 19%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights