Nublense 1-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nublense host Union La Calera at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún in Primera División, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 15 August 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Nublense have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Nublense) versus 1.50 (Union La Calera). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Nublense have won 0, Union La Calera 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nublense in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nublense 64% and Union La Calera 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 50% | Union La Calera 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.01 xG and Union La Calera 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 0.843 / defence 1.135 | Union La Calera attack 1.243 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.214. Union La Calera have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Nublense games / 50 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 22% | Draw 24% | Union La Calera 54%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Union La Calera 1.85. Union La Calera hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Nublense 70% | Union La Calera 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Aug 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 22% | Draw 24% | Union La Calera 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Nublense 1.01 / Union La Calera 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 0.843 / def 1.135 | Union La Calera attack 1.243 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Union La Calera xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Union La Calera kick off?
Nublense vs Union La Calera kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 15 August 2023 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Nublense 1 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Nublense vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Union La Calera part of?
Nublense vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 22% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nublense and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Union La Calera?
Record (4 meetings): Nublense 0W | Draws 3 | Union La Calera 1W.
What form are Nublense and Union La Calera in?
Nublense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nublense's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Union La Calera's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Nublense's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
22%
4.51
24%
4.18
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.72
1.71
Union La Calera xG
4.51
22%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
4%
25.01
20%
5.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Nublense and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Nublense and 1.71 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nublense come into this having played 50 games, going 20W 15D 15L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 1.32 PPG from 50 outings (15W 21D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nublense on 1.50 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nublense's home form reads 12W 5D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 1.12 points per game from 25 outings (6W 10D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nublense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nublense are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.28 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nublense have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Union La Calera in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 20W 15D 15L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 15W 21D 14L in their last 50 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Union La Calera away?
Nublense's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.64 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Nublense or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nublense and Union La Calera runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Union La Calera won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nublense's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nublense
5
Draws
4
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Nublense have won 1, Union La Calera have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Union La Calera 0-1 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nublense at 76%, Union La Calera at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Nublense and 52% for Union La Calera. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Union La Calera?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Nublense's games and 60% of Union La Calera's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nublense vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Nublense's matches and 52% of Union La Calera's.
Do Nublense and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nublense and Union La Calera share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense and Union La Calera finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 21, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.01 xG and Union La Calera 1.71 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Union La Calera attack 1.24 / defence 0.94, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 22% | Draw 24% | Union La Calera 54%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 50%, Union La Calera 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Union La Calera's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.50 PPG, Union La Calera 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.