Nublense 0-0 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nublense host Union La Calera at Estadio CAP in Primera División, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 February 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Nublense have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nublense at Estadio CAP this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Nublense carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nublense have won 0, Union La Calera 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Union La Calera winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nublense in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 53% versus Union La Calera 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 47% | Union La Calera 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.50 xG and Union La Calera 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 1.058 / defence 0.959 | Union La Calera attack 1.172 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.176. Data: 33 Nublense games / 33 Union La Calera games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nublense 41% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 33%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Union La Calera 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nublense are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nublense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Nublense 50% | Union La Calera 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio CAP • Kick-off: Monday 14 Feb 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 41% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Nublense 1.50 / Union La Calera 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 1.058 / def 0.959 | Union La Calera attack 1.172 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Nublense (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Union La Calera xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Union La Calera kick off?
Nublense vs Union La Calera kicked off at 21:00 on Monday 14 February 2022 at Estadio CAP.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Nublense 0 - 0 Union La Calera.
Where is Nublense vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio CAP.
What competition is Nublense vs Union La Calera part of?
Nublense vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 41% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Nublense and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Union La Calera?
Record (1 meetings): Nublense 0W | Draws 0 | Union La Calera 1W.
What form are Nublense and Union La Calera in?
Nublense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Union La Calera (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nublense's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Union La Calera's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Nublense's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
41%
2.44
26%
3.80
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.83
1.32
Union La Calera xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Nublense and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Nublense and 1.32 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nublense come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 11D 10L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 1.59 PPG from 32 outings (15W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nublense on 1.38 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nublense's home form reads 7W 5D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 1.75 points per game from 16 outings (8W 4D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Nublense are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.28 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 11W 11D 10L in their last 32 games (1.38 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 15W 6D 11L in their last 32 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Union La Calera away?
Union La Calera's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.62 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Nublense or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nublense and Union La Calera runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Union La Calera won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nublense's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nublense
5
Draws
4
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Nublense have won 1, Union La Calera have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Union La Calera 0-1 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 44%, Union La Calera 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nublense) and 62% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Nublense have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Nublense's recent matches and 62% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nublense vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nublense's recent games and 62% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nublense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense and Union La Calera finished level at 0-0 at Estadio CAP, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.50 xG and Union La Calera 1.32 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nublense fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Union La Calera landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Union La Calera attack 1.17 / defence 0.98, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 41% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 33%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 47%, Union La Calera 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union La Calera's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.38 PPG, Union La Calera 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.