Nublense 0-2 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union La Calera at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nublense vs Union La Calera encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nublense host Union La Calera at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún in Primera División, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Nublense have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Nublense are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Union La Calera's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Nublense's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Nublense in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 52% versus Union La Calera 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 48% | Union La Calera 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.21 xG and Union La Calera 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 0.943 / defence 1.103 | Union La Calera attack 1.072 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.211. Union La Calera bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Nublense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Nublense games / 23 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 32% | Draw 27% | Union La Calera 42%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Union La Calera 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Nublense 40% | Union La Calera 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 32% | Draw 27% | Union La Calera 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Nublense 1.21 / Union La Calera 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 0.943 / def 1.103 | Union La Calera attack 1.072 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Union La Calera xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Union La Calera kick off?
Nublense vs Union La Calera kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Nublense 0 - 2 Union La Calera.
Where is Nublense vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Union La Calera part of?
Nublense vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 32% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nublense and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Union La Calera?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nublense and Union La Calera in?
Nublense (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Union La Calera (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nublense's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Union La Calera's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Nublense's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
32%
3.17
27%
3.73
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.64
1.43
Union La Calera xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
8%
13.28
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Nublense and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Nublense and 1.43 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nublense come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 9D 7L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union La Calera carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Nublense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nublense's home form reads 5W 4D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Nublense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 1.64 points per game from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Nublense are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.22 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 7W 9D 7L in their last 23 games (1.30 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 12W 5D 6L in their last 23 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Union La Calera away?
Nublense's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.73 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Nublense or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nublense and Union La Calera runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Union La Calera won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nublense's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nublense
5
Draws
4
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Nublense have won 1, Union La Calera have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Union La Calera 0-1 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 46%, Union La Calera 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Nublense) and 64% (Union La Calera). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Nublense have failed to score in 27% of games; Union La Calera in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Nublense's recent matches and 54% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nublense vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Nublense's matches and 64% of Union La Calera's.
Do Nublense and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union La Calera cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nublense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Nublense 0-2 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.21 xG and Union La Calera 1.43 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nublense fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.94 / defence 1.10 against Union La Calera attack 1.07 / defence 1.21, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 32% | Draw 27% | Union La Calera 42%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 48%, Union La Calera 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union La Calera's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Union La Calera arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union La Calera (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.