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Shock result as U. Catolica defy the odds to beat Nublense 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

U. Catolica beat Nublense 1-2 at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.47 xG and U. Catolica 1.07 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. U. Catolica outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against U. Catolica attack 1.23 / defence 1.12, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nublense 46% | Draw 26% | U. Catolica 28%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual U. Catolica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 42%, U. Catolica 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nublense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights