🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Nublense and Deportes Limache share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Regular Season - 2, as Nublense and Deportes Limache drew 1-1 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.77 xG and Deportes Limache 1.02 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Deportes Limache attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Nublense 55% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 22%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights