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Nublense and Deportes Iquique share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Regular Season - 6, as Nublense and Deportes Iquique drew 1-1 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.53 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.08 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Deportes Iquique attack 0.97 / defence 1.18, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nublense 46% | Draw 28% | Deportes Iquique 25%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 47%, Deportes Iquique 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nublense's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nublense 1.33 PPG, Deportes Iquique 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights