Nublense 1-0 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nublense and Deportes Copiapo meet at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún in Primera División, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nublense's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Nublense have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.50 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 1.063 / defence 1.524 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.760 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.254. Data: 42 Nublense games / 12 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 38% | Draw 26% | Deportes Copiapo 36%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Deportes Copiapo 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nublense are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 May 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 38% | Draw 26% | Deportes Copiapo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Nublense 1.50 / Deportes Copiapo 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 1.063 / def 1.524 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.760 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Nublense (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Deportes Copiapo xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 23:00 on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo?
Nublense 1 - 0 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 38% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Nublense and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Deportes Copiapo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nublense and Deportes Copiapo in?
Nublense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Nublense home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nublense's attack rating (1.06) and Deportes Copiapo's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Deportes Copiapo's attack (0.76x) against Nublense's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
38%
2.62
26%
3.91
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.95
1.45
Deportes Copiapo xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
9%
11.20
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Nublense and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Nublense and 1.45 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Deportes Copiapo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Pre-Season
Deportes Copiapo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Nublense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Nublense
1
Draws
0
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Deportes Copiapo?
From 4 meetings on record, Nublense have won 3, Deportes Copiapo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 0-1 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Deportes Copiapo?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Nublense edge out Deportes Copiapo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Deportes Copiapo 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.50 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.45 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Copiapo landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.06 / defence 1.52 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 38% | Draw 26% | Deportes Copiapo 36%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.