Nublense 0-1 D. La Serena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs D. La Serena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún plays host to Nublense versus D. La Serena in Primera División, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Wednesday 6 October 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nublense have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Nublense are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún than their overall form suggests.
D. La Serena's overall Primera División record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for D. La Serena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
D. La Serena's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Nublense's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nublense lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2021, ended 0–1 with D. La Serena winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Nublense half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
D. La Serena half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 54% versus D. La Serena 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 50% | D. La Serena 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.52 xG and D. La Serena 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 1.035 / defence 1.094 | D. La Serena attack 0.776 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.242. D. La Serena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Nublense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Nublense games / 22 D. La Serena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 46% | Draw 30% | D. La Serena 24%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | D. La Serena 4.17. Nublense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nublense as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nublense 50% | D. La Serena 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs D. La Serena | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Oct 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 46% | Draw 30% | D. La Serena 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Nublense 1.52 / D. La Serena 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 1.035 / def 1.094 | D. La Serena attack 0.776 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Nublense (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.05
D. La Serena xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs D. La Serena kick off?
Nublense vs D. La Serena kicked off at 00:30 on Wednesday 6 October 2021 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs D. La Serena?
Nublense 0 - 1 D. La Serena.
Where is Nublense vs D. La Serena being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs D. La Serena part of?
Nublense vs D. La Serena is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs D. La Serena?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 46% chance of winning, D. La Serena a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs D. La Serena?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nublense and D. La Serena will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs D. La Serena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and D. La Serena?
Record (1 meetings): Nublense 0W | Draws 0 | D. La Serena 1W.
What form are Nublense and D. La Serena in?
Nublense (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. D. La Serena (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nublense's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against D. La Serena's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — D. La Serena's attack (0.78x) against Nublense's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.38
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.58
1.05
D. La Serena xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
5%
18.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs D. La Serena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Nublense and D. La Serena expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Nublense and 1.05 for D. La Serena, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs D. La Serena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Nublense have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 7W 8D 7L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
D. La Serena's form line: 6W 7D 9L from 22 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for D. La Serena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Nublense against 1.14 for D. La Serena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nublense have posted 1.73 PPG from 11 outings (5W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Nublense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, D. La Serena have gone 1W 4D 6L from 11 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of D. La Serena's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nublense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nublense are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; D. La Serena are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: D. La Serena in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Blended
D. La Serena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and D. La Serena in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while D. La Serena have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or D. La Serena away?
Nublense's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.73 PPG; D. La Serena away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Nublense or D. La Serena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, D. La Serena in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: D. La Serena won 3-0 on 30 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against D. La Serena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Nublense
2
Draws
3
D. La Serena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and D. La Serena?
From 7 meetings on record, Nublense have won 2, D. La Serena have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and D. La Serena last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nublense 2-2 D. La Serena.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and D. La Serena?
D. La Serena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
D. La Serena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 46%, D. La Serena 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Nublense) and 46% (D. La Serena).
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Nublense have failed to score in 27% of games; D. La Serena in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / D. La Serena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play D. La Serena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Nublense's recent matches and 46% of D. La Serena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nublense vs D. La Serena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Nublense's recent games and 46% of D. La Serena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and D. La Serena tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, D. La Serena in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as D. La Serena defy the odds to beat Nublense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
D. La Serena beat Nublense 0-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.52 xG and D. La Serena 1.05 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nublense fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against D. La Serena attack 0.78 / defence 1.33, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 46% | Draw 30% | D. La Serena 24%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a D. La Serena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 50%, D. La Serena 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
D. La Serena's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.32 PPG, D. La Serena 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the D. La Serena win broke the near-deadlock. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. D. La Serena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.