Nublense 1-3 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 10 as Nublense welcome Coquimbo Unido to Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 April 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Nublense have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nublense have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Nublense carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Nublense have won 2, Coquimbo Unido 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Nublense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nublense in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nublense 63% and Coquimbo Unido 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 53% | Coquimbo Unido 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.46 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 1.036 / defence 1.081 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.046 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.251. Data: 39 Nublense games / 39 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 37% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 35%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Coquimbo Unido 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nublense are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nublense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Nublense 70% | Coquimbo Unido 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 37% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Nublense 1.46 / Coquimbo Unido 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 1.036 / def 1.081 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.046 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Nublense (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Coquimbo Unido xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Nublense 1 - 3 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 37% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Nublense and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (2 meetings): Nublense 2W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are Nublense and Coquimbo Unido in?
Nublense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nublense's attack at 1.04x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Nublense's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
37%
2.69
27%
3.64
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.87
1.41
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Nublense and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Nublense and 1.41 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nublense come into this having played 30 games, going 14W 10D 6L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 0.90 PPG from 30 outings (7W 6D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Nublense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nublense's home form reads 9W 4D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 0.60 points per game from 15 outings (2W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nublense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nublense are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.07 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nublense have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 14W 10D 6L in their last 30 games (1.73 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 7W 6D 17L in their last 30 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Nublense's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 2.07 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nublense and Coquimbo Unido runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nublense's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Nublense
3
Draws
3
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Nublense have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 1-1 Nublense.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 73%, Coquimbo Unido 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Nublense and 53% for Coquimbo Unido. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Nublense's games and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Nublense's matches and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's.
Do Nublense and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Nublense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Nublense 1-3 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.46 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.41 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.05 / defence 0.94, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 37% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 35%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Coquimbo Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 53%, Coquimbo Unido 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nublense arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Coquimbo Unido winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.