Nublense 5-1 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Colo Colo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Colo Colo make the trip to Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún to face Nublense in Primera División, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 May 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 0.98 xG and Colo Colo 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 1.102 / defence 1.177 | Colo Colo attack 1.025 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 0.859 / away 1.047. Data: 5 Nublense games / 5 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 25% | Draw 36% | Colo Colo 39%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 4.00 | Draw 2.78 | Colo Colo 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Colo Colo at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 25% | Draw 36% | Colo Colo 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Nublense 0.98 / Colo Colo 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 1.102 / def 1.177 | Colo Colo attack 1.025 / def 1.033 | league avg home 0.859 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Colo Colo xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Colo Colo kick off?
Nublense vs Colo Colo kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 2 May 2021 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Colo Colo?
Nublense 5 - 1 Colo Colo.
Where is Nublense vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Colo Colo part of?
Nublense vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 25% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nublense and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Colo Colo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nublense and Colo Colo in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nublense's attack at 1.10x the league average against Colo Colo's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Colo Colo's attack (1.02x) against Nublense's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
25%
4.04
36%
2.75
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.24
1.26
Colo Colo xG
4.04
25%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
7%
14.28
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.4 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nublense and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Nublense and 1.26 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Pre-Season
Colo Colo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Colo Colo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 6-2 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Colo Colo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nublense
4
Draws
4
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Nublense have won 2, Colo Colo have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Colo Colo 6-2 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Nublense run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Colo Colo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Colo Colo 5-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 0.98 xG and Colo Colo 1.26 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Nublense beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.10 / defence 1.18 against Colo Colo attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 25% | Draw 36% | Colo Colo 39%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Nublense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.