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Shock result as Colo Colo defy the odds to beat Nublense 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat Nublense 0-1 at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.14 xG and Colo Colo 0.92 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nublense fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Colo Colo attack 0.81 / defence 0.86, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nublense 41% | Draw 30% | Colo Colo 29%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Colo Colo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 42%, Colo Colo 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nublense's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Colo Colo's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Colo Colo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights