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Dominant Nublense run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Cobresal.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nublense beat Cobresal 5-0 at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.01 xG and Cobresal 1.01 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Nublense beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cobresal landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.70 / defence 0.96 against Cobresal attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nublense 35% | Draw 31% | Cobresal 35%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 41%, Cobresal 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nublense's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cobresal's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nublense 1.19 PPG, Cobresal 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Nublense (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights