Nublense 0-0 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nublense vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antofagasta make the trip to Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún to face Nublense in Primera División, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nublense's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 1L across 5 games at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Nublense are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún than their overall form suggests.
Antofagasta have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antofagasta away from home this season: 1W 3D 1L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Nublense — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Antofagasta — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nublense 50% and Antofagasta 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 40% | Antofagasta 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.53 xG and Antofagasta 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 1.306 / defence 1.030 | Antofagasta attack 1.006 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 0.906. Nublense carry an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Antofagasta bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Nublense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Nublense games / 10 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 50% | Draw 28% | Antofagasta 22%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Antofagasta 4.55. Nublense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nublense as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Nublense 40% | Antofagasta 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 50% | Draw 28% | Antofagasta 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Nublense 1.53 / Antofagasta 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 1.306 / def 1.030 | Antofagasta attack 1.006 / def 1.209 | league avg home 0.972 / away 0.906 • Poisson stance: Nublense (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Antofagasta xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Antofagasta kick off?
Nublense vs Antofagasta kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Antofagasta?
Nublense 0 - 0 Antofagasta.
Where is Nublense vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Antofagasta part of?
Nublense vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 50% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nublense and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Antofagasta?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nublense and Antofagasta in?
Nublense (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Antofagasta (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nublense's attack rating (1.31) and Antofagasta's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antofagasta's attack (1.01x) against Nublense's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.58
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.47
0.94
Antofagasta xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
5%
21.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Nublense and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Nublense and 0.94 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nublense's recent record stands at 5W 2D 3L from 10 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antofagasta, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 3L across 10 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Nublense against 1.50 for Antofagasta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Nublense have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Nublense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Antofagasta's away record stands at 0W 3D 1L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antofagasta's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nublense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nublense are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antofagasta in 80%.
Last 10 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Blended
Antofagasta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Antofagasta away?
Nublense's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 3.00 PPG; Antofagasta away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Nublense or Antofagasta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Antofagasta in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Antofagasta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nublense
2
Draws
2
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, Nublense have won 0, Antofagasta have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when Antofagasta 1-0 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Antofagasta?
Antofagasta have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Nublense, 100% for Antofagasta — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nublense) and 25% (Antofagasta).
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Antofagasta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nublense's games and 100% of Antofagasta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nublense vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nublense's recent games and 25% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and Antofagasta tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nublense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense and Antofagasta finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.53 xG and Antofagasta 0.94 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nublense fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Antofagasta landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.31 / defence 1.03 against Antofagasta attack 1.01 / defence 1.21, drawn from 11/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 50% | Draw 28% | Antofagasta 22%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 40%, Antofagasta 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antofagasta's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.70 PPG, Antofagasta 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Antofagasta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.