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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as A. Italiano defy the odds to beat Nublense 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

A. Italiano beat Nublense 2-3 at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 0.97 xG and A. Italiano 0.89 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Nublense beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. A. Italiano outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.74 / defence 0.90 against A. Italiano attack 0.98 / defence 0.85, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nublense 36% | Draw 32% | A. Italiano 32%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual A. Italiano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 45%, A. Italiano 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nublense 1.25 PPG, A. Italiano 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the A. Italiano win broke the near-deadlock. Nublense (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. A. Italiano (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights