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Prediction vindicated as Huachipato edge out Universidad de Chile 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Huachipato beat Universidad de Chile 2-1 at Estadio Huachipato, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.30 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.93 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 0.96 / defence 0.90 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.06 / defence 0.90, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Huachipato 45% | Draw 28% | Universidad de Chile 27%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 53%, Universidad de Chile 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Huachipato's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Huachipato winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights