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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Huachipato cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Union La Calera.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Huachipato beat Union La Calera 3-1 at Estadio Huachipato, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 2.20 xG and Union La Calera 1.16 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Huachipato beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 1.28 / defence 1.18 against Union La Calera attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Huachipato 61% | Draw 20% | Union La Calera 19%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 53%, Union La Calera 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Huachipato's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Huachipato 1.28 PPG, Union La Calera 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Huachipato win broke the near-deadlock. Huachipato (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights